Data analysis by Alsteni Medical
92%

of patients prescribed GLP-1 drugs for obesity will stop taking them within three years

Prime Therapeutics, June 2025: analysis of 16.5 million covered lives.
The most effective obesity drugs ever developed have a retention problem.

Scroll to explore the data ↓

GLP-1 receptor agonists (Ozempic, Wegovy, Mounjaro, Zepbound) are the most important obesity treatment in decades. In clinical trials, patients lost 15–20% of their body weight. For millions of people, these drugs delivered what no diet, exercise program, or previous medication ever could.

This is not an article about whether GLP-1 drugs work. They work.

This is about what happens next.

15–20%
Average weight loss in Phase 3 trials
STEP & SURMOUNT trials
30M
Americans projected on GLP-1 by 2030
J.P. Morgan, Jan 2026
12.4%
U.S. adults taking GLP-1 for weight loss
Gallup, Oct 2025

The Weight Loss Curve

What a typical GLP-1 patient’s weight trajectory actually looks like, including what happens after they stop.

The green line is the promise. The red line is the reality for the vast majority. Of patients who start GLP-1 therapy for obesity, 47–65% discontinue within the first year alone. JAMA Network Open, Jan 2025, n=125,474

By year three, only 8.1% are still taking their medication, meaning 91.9% have stopped. Prime Therapeutics, Jun 2025, n=16.5M covered lives

Why They Stop

The reasons 92% of patients discontinue GLP-1 therapy, from an analysis of 78,781 patients.

"GLP-1 receptor agonists should not be relied on as a magic cure for treating obesity. Healthy dietary and lifestyle practices should remain the foundation." Qi Sun, MD, Brigham and Women’s Hospital / Harvard Medical School. BMJ Editorial, January 2026.

The Regain Clock

After stopping GLP-1 medication, weight regain is 4× faster than after behavioral interventions, regardless of how much weight was initially lost.

1.7
years to full regain
After stopping GLP-1 drugs
1.7 years · 0.8 kg/month regain · BMJ, Jan 2026
After stopping diet & exercise
~6.8 years · ~0.1 kg/month regain · Behavioral studies meta-analysis
Source: West et al., BMJ, January 7, 2026. Systematic review and meta-analysis, n=9,341 across 37 studies.

The Cost

GLP-1 therapy is designed to be taken indefinitely. Select a pricing tier to see what that means over time.

$20,940
over 5 years
1 Year
$4,188
Average U.S. household spends $4,942/yr on healthcare
3 Years
$12,564
Median down payment on a U.S. home: $26,700
5 Years
$20,940
Average annual salary for a U.S. restaurant worker

And if you’re in the 92% who stop, you’ll regain the weight within 1.7 years.

GLP-1 Lifecycle Simulator
Input your scenario. See the projected weight trajectory and cumulative cost based on published clinical data.
220
pounds
$349
per month
12
months
Peak weight loss
Net change at 5 years
Total spent
Cost per lb lost at 5 yrs
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Weight loss curve based on STEP 1 trial data (semaglutide 2.4 mg). Regain rate: 0.8 kg/month for semaglutide/tirzepatide (BMJ, West et al., Jan 2026). This is a population-level projection, not individual medical advice.

What alternatives exist for patients who cannot sustain chronic therapy?
Explore the Treatment Desert Map →

Sources

  1. Prime Therapeutics, "GLP-1 Therapy to Treat Obesity Among Members Without Diabetes: Three-Year Persistence," June 2025 (n=16.5 million covered lives).
  2. Cummings DE et al., "GLP-1 Receptor Agonist Discontinuation," JAMA Network Open, January 2025 (n=125,474).
  3. ISPOR/Truveta, "Reasons for GLP-1 Discontinuation," October 2025 (n=78,781).
  4. West S et al., "Weight regain after cessation of medication for weight management: systematic review and meta-analysis," BMJ, January 7, 2026 (n=9,341 across 37 studies).
  5. Wilding JPH et al., STEP 1 Extension Trial: weight regain after semaglutide withdrawal. Diabetes, Obesity and Metabolism, 2022 (n=327).
  6. Sun Q, "Weight regain after cessation of GLP-1 drugs," BMJ Editorial, January 2026.
  7. Novo Nordisk press release, February 24, 2026 (50% WAC reduction effective January 2027).
  8. White House Most Favored Nation Fact Sheet, November 2025 (Medicare GLP-1 at $245/month).
  9. J.P. Morgan Research, "How Supply and Demand for Weight Loss Drugs is Playing Out in 2026," January 2026.
  10. Gallup National Health and Well-Being Index, October 2025 (12.4% of U.S. adults taking GLP-1 for weight loss).